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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|